Antifragility and second-order consequences

Nassim Taleb first coined the term Antifragility. It means that instead of being resilient or adaptive in moments of stress or chaos you actually get stronger. You don’t just deal with the situation you are in, you use the experience to improve. 

In many ways, it leans into the good old saying “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”

If we look at history this property, antifragility, has been behind things that have changed with time and most if not all have come about from disorder or disruption, evolution, revolutions, political systems, legal systems, technological innovation, cultural and economic success, bacterial resistance… even our own existence as humans on this planet.

Why antifragility may be so important in the post-pandemic new normal.

The thing with antifragility is that it looks at the effectiveness of doing things in the long term.

Currently, everyone is looking at what we need to do to optimise the new situation. 

Everyone looks for a quick fix: governments to prove themselves for the term that they are in and businesses to show return on investment to boards or shareholders for this year. They only worry about the next year as and when the next year comes; but this is playing small. 

When I work with businesses I don’t ask them what they want to achieve in 2 years, I ask them what the business will look like as they exit it?  10 out of 10 times I hear “well I don’t know I haven’t looked that far ahead, Cathy!”. But if you don’t know what you want to achieve as a final step how do you know what you need to consider or exclude so you have options to get you to the end goal?

It’s hard to play the long game when there may be a visible negative first step. You have to be willing to look like an idiot in the short term to look like a genius in the long term.

That is why many people play the short game. But again, when you do what everyone else does, don’t be surprised when you get the same results everyone else does. Or don’t expect a different outcome when you do the same thing over and over again.

Antifragility, in many ways, is the same. It is about playing the long term game. Start thinking ahead to the second-order consequences of your decisions.

Second-Order Consequences

Things are not always as they appear. Often when we solve one problem, we end up unintentionally creating another even worse one. The best way to examine the long-term consequences of our decisions is to use second-order thinking.

The ability to think through problems to the second, third, and nth order, or what we will call second-order thinking for short, is a powerful tool that supercharges your thinking.

Second-order thinking is more deliberate. It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that, despite our intentions, our interventions often cause harm. Second-order thinkers ask themselves the question “And then what?” This means thinking about the consequences of repeatedly eating a chocolate bar when you are hungry and using that to inform your decision. If you do this you’re more likely to eat something healthy.

First-level thinking looks similar. Everyone reaches the same conclusions. This is where things get interesting. The road to out-thinking people can’t come from first-order thinking. It must come from second-order thinking. Extraordinary performance comes from seeing things that other people can’t see.

How best to be antifragile and the best practical strategies to implement. 

• Keep your options open.

  If you go into things knowing you have the answers– you limit what options may come from a discussion – you’re thinking small and closing your mind to “what else”?

• Build-in redundancy and layers (no single point of failure) 

  Power failure – have a backup generator, then have flashlights, and in case the batteries go flat – have candles and matches

• Stick to simple rules

  Don’t overcomplicate things. Create step by step processes and rules so that you can take measured steps. If something fails it should then be quickly identified and easy to fix.

• Avoid risks that, if lost, would wipe you out completely

  It’s not an all in or nothing approach. It is about taking small risks

• Experimenting — take lots of small risks

  This way you can explore impacts and potential implications

• Make sure that you have your soul and skin in the game

  If you don’t have a vested interest, you will not engage with passion and purpose. 

• Frame your mind so that you focus more on avoiding things that don’t work because you will find new solutions – avoid trying to find out what does work – this takes you down the path that has already been accepted so there is nothing to learn and strengthen from it

• Don’t get stuck on Data 

  You become micro in your thought and lose sight of the long term effective outcome.

• Respect the old

  Look for habits and rules that have been around for a long time

In short, stop optimising for today or tomorrow and start playing the long game. That means being less efficient in the short term but more effective in the long term

In many ways, I take the same approach when talking about leadership. It is not about what we do now for today, but what we can do today to create a greater impact for our future generation. 

We all know that what tomorrow looks like will be a result of what we have done today. 

Don’t play the short term game, look at what can happen well beyond our lifecycle and create the path for that.